Vaccine Conundrum: 2023 Update

   18+ Population15-18 Years12-14 YearsTotal% coverage
States2011 Census2023 estimatesFirst DoseSecond DoseFirst DoseSecond DoseFirst DoseSecond DoseFirst DoseSecond Dose1st2nd
Uttar Pradesh     199,812,341      235,687,000   154,095,846   147,866,306   14,193,592   13,227,385     8,709,558     7,875,689      176,998,996   168,969,380 75%72%
Maharashtra     112,374,333      126,385,000     84,661,742     71,648,227     4,118,955     3,108,682     2,890,917     1,870,154        90,650,851     76,627,063 72%61%
Bihar     104,099,452      126,756,000 62,956,600     59,160,909 6,240,650     5,348,480     4,287,694     3,402,633        72,599,883     67,912,022 57%54%
West Bengal       91,276,115        99,084,000     67,305,205     61,606,655     3,599,971     3,041,518     2,622,439     2,059,332        72,964,508     66,707,505 74%67%
Madhya Pradesh       72,626,809        86,579,000     54,143,721     54,060,575     4,194,620     3,472,819     2,410,931     1,698,646        60,036,987     59,232,040 69%68%
Tamil Nadu       72,147,030        76,860,000     56,670,420     53,531,488     2,627,711     2,223,999     1,917,091     1,465,184        60,763,315     57,220,671 79%74%
Rajasthan       68,548,437        81,025,000     51,115,135     46,586,572     3,576,021     2,955,024     2,343,913     1,496,698        56,187,854     51,038,294 69%63%
Karnataka       61,095,297        67,692,000     50,032,618     50,520,626     2,816,420     2,719,838     2,325,231     2,150,764        54,999,802     55,391,228 81%82%
Gujarat       60,439,692        71,507,000     49,324,313     49,447,677     3,131,882     2,906,669     1,941,553     1,677,781        54,133,976     54,032,127 76%76%
Andhra Pradesh       49,386,799        53,156,000     40,645,526     43,555,676     2,535,340     2,527,612     1,523,365     1,495,439        44,676,305     47,578,727 84%90%
Odisha       41,974,218        46,276,000     31,454,213     29,961,026     2,195,557     1,844,429     1,600,986     1,206,659        34,856,429     33,012,114 75%71%
Telangana       35,193,978        38,090,000     29,616,147     29,076,321     1,724,039     1,582,381     1,107,427        901,148        32,241,334     31,559,850 85%83%
Kerala       33,406,061        35,776,000     27,017,012     23,802,666     1,322,835        957,260        810,940        511,968        28,851,815     25,271,894 81%71%
Jharkhand       32,988,134        39,466,000     21,309,985     16,109,631     1,596,094     1,125,341     1,062,598        622,621        23,528,700     17,857,593 60%45%
Assam       31,205,576        35,713,000     22,550,940     20,575,568     1,262,520        972,402        999,552        602,283        24,415,743     22,150,253 68%62%
Punjab       27,743,338        30,730,000     22,360,873     19,620,593     1,117,484        878,039        684,133        497,386        23,975,743     20,996,018 78%68%
Chhattisgarh       25,545,198        30,180,000     18,956,636     18,537,789     1,234,989     1,053,337     1,076,059        752,555        20,944,180     20,343,681 69%67%
Haryana       25,351,462        30,209,000     21,963,025     18,749,437     1,158,491        771,866        559,813        327,582        23,449,098     19,848,885 78%66%
Delhi       16,787,941        21,359,000     16,604,293     14,355,694     1,008,906        870,754        683,552        490,316        18,103,515     15,716,764 85%74%
Jammu & Kashmir       12,258,433        13,603,000       9,942,689     10,388,567        876,048        861,731        553,844        517,818        11,336,555     11,768,116 83%87%
Uttarakhand       10,086,292        11,637,000       8,183,313       7,949,220        532,980        467,834        402,311        315,985          9,032,278       8,733,039 78%75%
Himachal Pradesh         6,864,602          7,468,000       6,042,660       5,783,693        331,826        309,613        272,064        235,002          6,609,488       6,328,308 89%85%
Tripura         3,673,917          4,147,000       2,659,018       2,328,968        144,833        115,278        112,965          79,612          2,883,463       2,523,858 70%61%
Meghalaya         2,966,889          3,349,000       1,332,367       1,025,429          77,132          42,844          37,364          19,512          1,429,011       1,087,785 43%32%
Manipur         2,855,794          3,223,000       1,464,399       1,226,336        109,652          68,555          75,418          44,329          1,618,380       1,339,220 50%42%
Nagaland         1,978,502          2,233,000          837,969          684,747          59,974          40,347          26,012          19,889             917,832          744,983 41%33%
Goa         1,458,545          1,575,000       1,355,046       1,224,544          51,734          44,551          33,265          26,640          1,433,420       1,295,735 91%82%
Arunachal Pradesh         1,383,727          1,562,000          861,396          748,505          59,100          44,869          40,852          28,445             948,941          821,819 61%53%
Puducherry         1,247,953          1,646,000          913,046          802,234          50,694          44,614          30,873          21,251             984,991          868,099 60%53%
Mizoram         1,097,206          1,238,000          785,860          669,572          60,098          47,010          48,360          33,595             879,553          750,177 71%61%
Chandigarh         1,055,450          1,231,000       1,089,773          921,116          57,688          43,895          38,181          25,995          1,173,456          991,006 95%81%
Sikkim            610,577             689,000          539,929          509,134          30,049          26,515          21,899          19,007             588,985          554,656 85%81%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu            586,956          1,263,000          730,850          595,089          31,509          26,943          19,989          14,929             777,288          636,961 62%50%
A & N Islands            380,581             403,000          313,284          320,383          19,208          18,860          15,124          14,041             346,533          353,284 86%88%
Ladakh            274,289             300,000          219,604          187,095          10,072            9,261            8,627            7,758             237,434          204,114 79%68%
Lakshadweep              64,473               69,000            56,914            56,019            2,911            2,781            1,988            1,723               61,548            60,523 89%88%
 1,210,846,397 1,388,166,000  920,112,367 864,194,087 62,161,585 53,803,336 41,296,888 32,530,369 1,015,638,190 950,527,792 73%68%
Table 1: Vaccination by states and % coverage

I had said in my earlier blog, “What all of this tells us with some near perfect execution and some optimistic modelling India may be able to vaccinate their target age group of 18 and above with a single shot by mid 2022, they may be able vaccinate the total population with the second dose by Mar 2023”. Today as of 26 May 2023, India has managed to vaccinate 73-75% of its population with a first dose and 68% of its population with a second dose.

In my first blog I had said, “To compound matters the state-wise distribution seem inequitable, populous states like Uttar Pradesh has a 51% and Bihar has a 46% under allocation in proportion to their population vs. a state like Gujarat seems to have 75%, or Himachal at 121%.” As of date, Uttar Pradesh has done a stellar job, despite its significant size in population and initial under allocation of vaccines the state managed a 75% first dose coverage. Himachal had an over allocation of vaccines and therefore a head start and as expected 89% of its population got the first jab and 84% second. Bihar with its overall poor track record in HDI (Human Development Index) and an under allocation has performed poorly as expected, with just 57% getting the first shot and 54% the second.

Figure 1: New York Times- Tracking Coronavirus Vaccinations Around the World

While India is in the green, it is ranked at 64 out of 187 nations in coverage. With 75% of its population getting at least their first does, India is marginally better than the global average of 72%. China has a 94% vaccinated population, any statistic from China has to be taken with a pinch of salt, but let’s just say the country with similar size to India has done significantly better. United States has vaccinated 80% of its population, Indonesia and Pakistan have vaccinated 75% and finally Brazil has vaccinated 90% of their population. The above countries along with India account for over 49% of the world population. So it’s fair to say that India’s report card will read as meets expectation with fair room for improvements.

If India is seeing a few minor blips in the active cases graph, it’s largely because of the lower vaccination coverage. One must acknowledge the country has definitely averted a major health crisis with majority of their population getting vaccinated, albeit, not without a few blunders resulting in a significant cost to human lives.

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